Table 1 Summary of Baseline Risk Models. Regression coefficients for continuous variables represent the hazard for a one unit change in each independent variable with the following units: creatinine (mg/dl), bmi (kg/m^2), age (years), DBP (mm Hg)
From: Can risk modelling improve treatment decisions in asymptomatic carotid stenosis?
Baseline Model — Ipsilateral Stroke/TIA | Secondary Outcome - ipsilateral stroke | Secondary Outcome — All Stroke/TIA | Secondary Outcome - All Stroke | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hazard Ratio | p-value | Hazard Ratio | p-value | Hazard Ratio | p-value | Hazard Ratio | p-value | |
Risk Factor | ||||||||
Contralateral Stenosis 60-80% (ref 0-60%) | 1.43 | 0.13 | 1.57 | 0.18 | 1.37 | 0.07 | 1.49 | 0.09 |
Contralateral Stenosis 80-100% (ref 0-60%) | 0.65 | 0.12 | 0.84 | 0.42 | 0.81 | 0.26 | 0.77 | 0.34 |
Creatinine | 1.46 | 0.01 | 1.31 | 0.05 | ||||
BMI | 1.05 | 0.02 | 1.05 | 0.05 | ||||
Abnormal Heart Rhythm | 0.4 | 0.12 | ||||||
Any prior vascular disease (CVD, PVD) | 0.59 | 0.1 | 1.28 | 0.08 | ||||
Diabetes | 1.3 | 0.1 | ||||||
Age | 1.01 | 0.27 | 1.02 | 0.19 | ||||
Smoking | 1.6 | 0.002 | 1.92 | 0.001 | ||||
Mean Diastolic BP | 1.01 | 0.05 | 1.02 | 0.04 | ||||
Model Parameters | ||||||||
N | 1551 | 1575 | 1622 | 1648 | ||||
Number Outcomes | 115 | 56 | 215 | 113 | ||||
c-statistic | 0.59 [0.54-0.65] | 0.63 [0.57-0.71] | 0.60 [0.56-0.64] | 0.62 [0.56-0.67] | ||||
Model LR test | <0.01 | 0.03 | <0.01 | <0.01 | ||||
Shrinkage Coefficient | 0.85 | |||||||
External validation c-statistic (ARIC) | 0.58 [0.49-0.67] | 0.57 [0.47-0.68] | 0.49 [0.40-0.59] | 0.58 [0.48-0.68] | ||||