Table 10 (7a) Predicted concordance rates of MS in second and third degree relatives of MS probands assuming (Pt0 = Pt1), 20% Dominant genes and 80% Recessive genes.
From: The genetic basis of multiple sclerosis: a model for MS susceptibility
Number of Susceptibility Genes Required (n) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | |
Frequency of Susceptibility (r) | Predicted Concordance in Second Degree Relatives (Target = 0.9 - 1.6%) | ||||||
r = 0.25 | 12.1% | 13.0% | 12.9% | 12.8% | 12.8 - 13.3% | 12.7-13.3% | 12.6 - 13.3% |
r = 0.33 | 9.2% | 7.6% | 6.8 - 9.1% | 6.1 - 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.1 - 9.1% | 6.5 - 8.5% |
r = 0.5 | 5.6% | 3.2 - 4.4% | 3.5 - 4.7% | 2.8 - 5.0% | 3.1 - 4.1% | 3.4 - 4.4% | 2.7 - 3.7% |
r = 1 | 3.7 - 4.5% | 2.1 - 2.9% | 1.8 - 2.5% | 1.8 - 2.4% | 1.5 - 2.1% | 1.5 - 2.0% | 1.3 - 1.8% |
r = 2 | 2.5 - 3.9% | 1.4 - 2.0% | 1.4 - 1.8% | 1.2 - 1.7% | 1.0 - 1.4% | 0.9 - 1.2% | 0.8 - 1.2% |
r = 4 | 2.4 - 3.5% | 1.1 - 1.7% | 1.0 - 1.5% | 0.9 - 1.3% | 0.8 - 1.1% | 0.7 - 1.0% | 0.6 - 0.9% |
r = 8 | 2.1 - 3.2% | 1.0 - 1.4% | 0.9 - 1.3% | 0.7 - 1.1% | 0.6 - 0.9% | 0.5 - 0.8% | 0.5 - 0.7% |
r = 16 | 1.9 - 3.0% | 0.9 - 1.3% | 0.8 - 1.1% | 0.6 - 0.9% | 0.5 - 0.8% | 0.5 - 0.7% | 0.4 - 0.6% |
Frequency of Susceptibility (r) | Predicted Concordance in Third Degree Relatives (Target = 0.9%) | ||||||
r = 0.25 | 11.8% | 12.9% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 12.5 - 13.3% | 12.4 - 13.2% | 12.3 - 13.2% |
r = 0.33 | 8.3% | 6.3% | 5.5 - 7.9% | 4.8 - 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.7 - 7.8% | 5.0 - 7.1% |
r = 0.5 | 4.4% | 2.0 - 3.0% | 2.3 - 3.3% | 1.7 - 3.4% | 1.9 - 2.7% | 2.1 - 2.9% | 1.6 - 2.2% |
r = 1 | 2.7 - 3.3% | 1.1 - 1.7% | 0.9 - 1.4% | 0.9 - 1.3% | 0.7 - 1.1% | 0.7 - 1.0% | 0.5 - 0.8% |
r = 2 | 1.7 - 2.8% | 0.7 - 1.1% | 0.6 - 0.9% | 0.5 - 0.8% | 0.4 - 0.7% | 0.4 - 0.5% | 0.3 - 0.5% |
r = 4 | 1.6 - 2.5% | 0.5 - 0.9% | 0.5 - 0.7% | 0.4 - 0.6% | 0.3 - 0.5% | 0.3 - 0.4% | 0.2 - 0.3% |
r = 8 | 1.4 - 2.4% | 0.5 - 0.8% | 0.4 - 0.6% | 0.3 - 0.5% | 0.3 - 0.4% | 0.2 - 0.3% | 0.2 - 0.3% |
r = 16 | 1.3 - 2.2% | 0.4 - 0.7% | 0.3 - 0.5% | 0.3 - 0.5% | 0.2 - 0.4% | 0.2 - 0.3% | 0.1 - 0.2% |